Work Package 1

 

 

MODULE 1:


 

 

Macro-economic development

 

Based on assumptions on the main economic drivers of the NEMESIS model (demography, world demand, oil price and policies on energy and R&D) researchers from ERASME in Paris present the final results showing the development of GDP, employment and wages, energy consumption and sectoral production. (D1.1.1)

 

 

Claims for agriculture, transport and urban land use

 

Faster economic development of eastern countries results in more land needed for agriculture, transport and housing. These needs are confronted with land availability in each country and the scarcity of land is taken into account through the land price. Countries like Romania, which has limited available land and a high economic growth rate face a high increase in their land prices, while other eastern countries, like Estonia, with a strong economic growth and a lot of available land, has a moderate increase of land prices. (D1.1.2)

  

  

Population projections for EU27

 

IIASA presents probabilistic population projections for 27 EU countries and three other world regions. For each country the population by single year of age and sex I projected up to 2050. Besides the total population size, results are also shown for the proportion of people aged 65+, 80+, in working age and below 15. (D1.2.2) 

 

 

Demographic projections for NUTS2 regions

 

Approx. 57 % out of 264 regions are expected to experience positive changes in total population over the period 2005-2030. In some regions, e.g. Flevoland, Border, Midland and Wester, Languedoc-Roussillon, Kypros/Kibris and Lincolnshire, population is expected to increase with at least 30 % in the next two decades. (D.1.2.3)

 

 

Prospects for later-life migration in urban Europe

 

This report discusses the regional population projections and the potential impacts on retirement migration caused by changes in average retirement age, altered lifestyle preferences and the large size of the baby boomer generation. Empirical knowledge about past demographic trends is identified to improve the accuracy of predictions. However, the importance of uncertainty in projecting future retirement migration behaviour has to be acknowledged. (D1.2.4)

 

 

Environmental drivers

 

The environmental drivers fall into two distinct categories: Climate change and anthropogenic environmental pressures. An important element of this conceptual note is the preparation of a baseline profile that incorporates descriptions of recent trends and current status of four environmental resources: Air, biodiversity, soil and water. (D1.3.1)

 

 

Scenario framework

 

Based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios narratives a PLUREL research team led by Joe Ravetz, University of Manchester, have formulated four scenarios: A1 – High growth, A2 – Fragmentation, B1 – Cleaner affluence, B2 – Green enclaves. Each scenario is extended with the development of a “shock” scenario, allowing an analysis of change drivers that are of great significance to urban-rural relationships. (D1.3.2

 

 

Environmental drivers

 

This report by Jeremy Carter, University of Manchester, provides a comprehensive insight into four important environmental drivers (agriculture, climate change, energy, transport) impacting on peri-urban land use relationships in Europe. The future’s dimension of the work helps to demonstrate how the environmental drivers may evolve in the future, which is an important factor in developing strategies for sustainable peri-urban areas. (D.1.3.3)

 

 

Downscaling approach

 

This report from a research team at ZALF delivers an important part of the tool-box for downscaling. It outlines a concept of regional adaptation of scenario storylines and of modelling data derived from scenario modelling at national scale to a higher disaggregated scale. (D.1.4.1

 

 

Future projections of changes in transport networks, travel times and the urban to rural population ratio

 

This report presents the results of two different aspects of technological change: a) transport network density & travel times and b) ratios of urban and peri-urban to rural population. (D1.4.2)

 

 

Maps of land-use scenario projections for Europe

 

This report provides data, mainly in the form of maps of projected urban land use change, to be used both within and outwith the PLUREL project. The report aims to allow users to understand how the maps were obtained and how the data is structured. Aside from the maps, its contribution to the project end-products also includes PLUREL Xplorer factsheets. (D1.4.3)